![]() ![]() In the closely watched Pennsylvania Senate race, Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman narrowly beat Dr. In the Governor’s race, young people also provided strong support for Democrat Stacey Abrams, who was defeated by Brian Kemp. Young people favored Warnock 59% to 38%, while voters ages 30-44 backed Warnock by a smaller margin and older voters preferred Walker%. As of Wednesday evening, incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock was leading Republican Hershel Walker by 35,000 votes. Before the election, we had ranked it as the #1 Senate race in the country where youth could influence the result, and they accounted for an above-average 14% of the votes according to the AP VoteCast exit poll. Georgiaįor the second straight election cycle, the Georgia race for U.S. In the Governor’s race, the Republican Joe Lombardo came out on top and fared slightly better with young voters. Young people in Nevada preferred Cortez-Masto by 21 points over her opponent, meaning that young people accounted for a net 27,000 votes to propel her to victory. Senate for the next term, assuring Democratic control of the chamber. This made Cortez-Masto the 50th Democrat elected to the U.S. Nevadaĭemocratic incumbent Catherine Cortez-Masto was declared the winner over Republican Adam Laxalt, winning reelection by under 8,000 votes. Youth also played a factor in Democrat Mark Kelly’s victory over Republican Blake Masters in the U.S. ![]() Young people in Arizona favored Hobbs by a 20-point margin, yielding over 60,000 votes for Hobbs, over three times the winning margin of victory. On November 14, the Governor’s race was called for Democrat Katie Hobbs by just under 20,000 votes. More on some of the key races where youth had impact below: ArizonaĪrizona is nearly finished tallying their ballots for the closely watched contests for Governor and U.S. Because of their strong preference for Democratic candidates in those races, youth gave these candidates their strongest base of support and a number of “net” votes that far exceeds the final difference in each race. Our analysis of estimated votes cast by youth reveals that young people cast many times more votes than the margin of victory in major 2022 battlegrounds. Before the election, CIRCLE’s Youth Electoral Significance Index ranked the races where youth had the highest potential to help decide election results. However, in close elections decided by just a few percentage points, young voters can be more than influential: because of their often vastly different vote choice compared to older voters, they can be decisive. Young people’s voices and votes matter in every single state and race across the country. How Youth Swing Elections: “Net” Votes for Winner vs. Margin of Victory To provide the highest degree of certainty about young voters’ impact, these are the more conservative estimates of their electoral influence, which may have been even larger. Vote totals and victory margins were accurate as of Wednesday evening and are subject to change as votes are tallied and canvassed.įor this analysis we used data from AP VoteCast, which both nationally and in nearly all states reported a smaller youth share of the vote for Democrats than other data sources like the Edison Research exit poll. Meaning: if youth cast 100 total votes and they preferred one candidate 60% to 40%, they gave that candidate 20 net votes. Young voters were pivotal in the Wisconsin Governor race, where they cast a net 79,000 voters for Governor Tony Evers, who defeated Tim Michels by a mere 89,000 votes.Ībout the Analysis: What do we mean by “net” votes? The difference between the votes cast in favor of each candidate.Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, where they netted Fetterman 120,000 votes and his margin of victory was roughly 190,000. Young people contributed a significant portion of John Fetterman’s margin over Dr.Senate race which is going to a December recount, young people contributed 116,000 net votes to Raphael Warnock, who garnered just 35,000 votes more than Herschel Walker in a race headed to a runoff. In the Arizona governor’s race, where Democrat Katie Hobbs is projected to win by 20,000 votes, young people provided a net of 60,000 votes toward her over Republican Kari Lake.Young voters provided approximately 3 times the margin of victory in the razor-thin Nevada Senate race between Catherine Cortez-Masto and Adam Laxalt.Lead Authors: Ruby Belle Booth, Kelly BeadleĬIRCLE’s exclusive analysis of youth votes cast and vote choice in major electoral battlegrounds shows that young people had a decisive impact in races across the country, notably in sunbelt states from Georgia to Arizona, and in the upper Midwest like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. ![]()
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